After the volume of merchandise trade shrank by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter, estimates for the second quarter – when lockdown measures affected the largest share of the global population – show a drop of 18.5%. “These declines are historically large, but could have been much worse,” the WTO says on its website. The organization’s April forecast predicted trade could fall by 32% in a worst-case scenario. Even so, there are risks to the outlook, including a second wave of COVID‑19, weaker economic growth, and governments imposing trade restrictions.

SOURCE. World Economic Forum

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